Biggest Overreactions to Every NBA Team's First 2 Weeks
November 6, 2024Biggest Overreactions to Every NBA Team's First 2 Weeks
Have you ever read, watched or come up with your own batch of early-season NBA overreactions only to never address them again?
You're not alone. I am guilty of indulging in captive-of-the-moment behavior and then entirely forgetting about it, eluding any and all consequences from my thoughts and actions. It is the one-off equivalent of ranting and raving about how 15 different NBA players are top-10 stars without ever making a concrete list of the NBA's top-10 stars.
This year, though, my wise editors hit me with some words that'll forever change my life: Not this time, bub.
Overreactions from last week are being thrust back under the microscope. This trip down short-term memory lane will allow all of us to see how they've held up while forcing yours truly to ride the accountability, oft-oopsie wave.
In situations where knee-jerk impressions still hold merit, I will expound. For instances in which they've flopped, well, I will admit as much and readjust with a brand-new over-the-top takeaway that I'm wholly certain will totally, completely, inarguably hold up this time*.
(*Note: My fingers are definitely crossed.)
Atlanta Hawks
Initial Overreaction: Sound the "Jalen Johnson got the bag and followed in John Collins footsteps" alarm.
Status of Initial Overreaction: The alarm has been silenced.
Jalen Johnson is still schlepping through a pretty uneven year, but he has somewhat normalized following a rocky opening week.
His playmaking spike is much-needed for an Atlanta Hawks team light on secondary table-setters at the moment. If his efficiency from the field continues to fluctuate, it might be worth revisiting the onset concern.
New Overreaction: This defense is a lost cause.
There are moments when you can envision Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher ruining the existence of rival offenses for an entire generation. Then, however, you invariably watch what remains of the roster.
Atlanta is getting the snot kicked out of it in the half-court. And there seems to be little hope for material improvement.
The Hawks have, like, three guys capable of consistently grabbing defensive boards. And on certain nights, even that might be a stretch. Their slow-footedness and over-rotating and under-rotating and general out-of-position-ness and falling-asleep-itis is getting out of control.
Only the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors have committed more shooting fouls, according to PBP Stats. Both of those teams are seemingly built to lose as many games as possible.
The Memphis Grizzlies are the lone squad giving up wide-open threes on a more frequent basis, and no defense is allowing more points per possession to pick-and-roll ball-handlers.
If this Hawks roster finishes better than 25th on the less glamorous end, it'll be a minor, maybe major, miracle.
Boston Celtics
Initial Overreaction: This year's championship race is already over.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Better luck next season, everyone else.
Sure, the Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder all exist. And OK, the Boston Celtics' defense is fringe top-10 rather than indomitable and might be a little shaky around the basket.
But must we pretend as if we really care?
The Celtics' good-not-great defense will progress to great once Kristaps Porziņģis is back in the fold. If for some reason it doesn't, well, it most likely will not matter.
Boston's offense is torching opponents on the back of preposterous three-point volume and efficiency. We could say this type of shot-making won't sustain, but that would require forgetting last season ever happened.
Jayson Tatum would finish in the top three of MVP voting if ballots were due today. Jaylen Brown is currently dealing with a lingering hip flexor issue, but his penchant for year-over-year improvement endures—and he hasn't started hitting threes yet. Payton Pritchard apparently woke up and decided to never miss from downtown (or shoot twos) ever again.
Parity is a hallmark of today's NBA landscape, but pick a team other than Boston to win it all at your own peril.
Brooklyn Nets
Initial Overreaction: Cam Thomas is about to make NBA history (by becoming just the 13th player to average over 30 points per game before turning 24).
Status of Initial Overreaction: So much for that.
Cam Thomas has dipped below 25 points per game since yours truly binge-inhaled Kool-Aid through both nostrils. I forgive him. I wouldn't be doing this if I wasn't OK with being incorrect, and his additional playmaking oomph is a joy to watch.
New Overreaction: Dennis Schröder is about to be suspended for conduct not detrimental enough to the team.
The Brooklyn Nets are .500 at this writing and ceding valuable ground in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes. Many factors are at play behind this unwanted good start. None are more troubling to general manager Sean Marks than Schröder's eruption.
Thomas going off is reasonable. He's young. But where does Schröder get off having a career year at the age of 31? He is currently hitting waaay too many long twos and waaaaaay too many threes while throwing waaaaaaaaaay too many assists.
Suspending Schröder is the only option. Trades will eventually be on the table, but good luck pulling those off before Dec. 15. The Nets need to be better about not being not being better. That starts with preventing the German star from poisoning their well with too much quality basketball and the far too many wins that come with it.
Charlotte Hornets
Initial Overreaction: LaMelo Ball is totally making an All-NBA team.
Status of Initial Overreaction: "Totally" is a strong word, but then again, isn't that the point?
LaMelo Ball has given us little reason to pivot on an individual level. Some streaky-shooting performances are baked into his 2024-25 resume, but that can happen when you're taking roughly an infinite number of threes.
His overall scoring and efficiency is holding serve. He is putting up over 28 points per game on career-high true shooting (61.2) to go along with a personal-best 7.5 free-throw-attempts per 100 possessions. His assists have slipped to south of six per night, but that feels more about the Charlotte Hornets' offensive structure and, most importantly, supporting shot-making. LaMelo remains in the top 15 of potential dimes.
Any hemming and hawing over his All-NBA candidacy has more to do with team success and whether the 23-year-old actually drives it.
Charlotte doesn't seem primed to win enough games to cement LaMelo's candidacy or reputation. But the offense improves by almost 19 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. That is a brain-bending jump (95 percentile) even by early-season standards.
This says nothing of the per-game company he keeps. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokić and Jayson Tatum are the only other players clearing 28 points and five assists on true shooting better than 60.
So, yeah, this may be an overreaction. At least for now, though, LaMelo's All-NBA candidacy is real enough to roll with it.
Chicago Bulls
Initial Overreaction: Zach LaVine is better than ever.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Injuries still, and will forever continue to, suck.
Zach LaVine has played well enough to be treated as a positive-value trade asset. But he is currently on the shelf with a hip injury, which undermines that declaration.
Availability is arguably his biggest wart when weighed against the balance of his contract (three years, $138 million). And so, we move on.
New Overreaction: The Chicago Bulls are going to ruin everything, again, by failing to be bad enough.
If the playoffs started today, the Bulls would be in them. Not as a play-in team, but as a real, live, actual member of the top six. That is...not OK.
They are supposed to be bad. They are supposed to be rebuilding—or at least quasi-rebuilding. Winning enough to send their top-10-protected pick to San Antonio would be a disaster.
At best, it delays the inevitable; at worst, it emboldens the front office and team governorship to continue indelible pursuits of sub-mediocrity.
Bowing out via the play-in or the first round while Josh Giddey swishes enough threes to negotiate a near-max contract next summer would be #SoBulls. This era is supposed to be something other than #SoBulls, even if only slightly.
Perhaps this is just a frisky preamble to eventual LaVine and Nikola "Speaking Of Obliterating Expectations" Vučević trades and funneling more offensive usage toward Patrick "Really Got A Player Option" Williams. Who knows, maybe Chicago really gets into its rebuilding mode and shops Coby White closer to the deadline.
Or, alternatively, the Bulls are somehow bent on perpetuating their reign of being neither good nor bad enough to contend for or chase after anything or anyone special.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Initial Overreaction: Meet the actual second-best team in the Eastern Conference.
Status of Initial Overreaction: It was an underreaction.
This tidbit from last time continues to ring true now:
"Exactly one team ranks in the top five of offensive and defensive efficiency to start the season. It isn't the Boston Celtics. Or the Oklahoma City Thunder. It definitely isn't the Milwaukee Bucks.
"It's the Cleveland Cavaliers."
So, yeah. Going the "second-best team in the East" route isn't reactionary enough. To that end:
New Overreaction: Meet the actual second-best team in the NBA.
Statistically speaking, the Cavs have turned in a more impressive season than the Celtics. But we must defer to the reigning champs when they continue to run roughshod over almost everyone while missing one of their five most important players in Kristaps Porziņģis.
Plus, this is spicy enough when both the Mavs and Thunder exist. But Dallas is laboring through some rickety shot-making at the top of the roster, and Oklahoma City's own offense needs either another creator and/or a more consistent version of Jalen Williams.
Frenetic balance continues to punctuate the Cavs' season. Their top-four players—Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley—all mean business. Both Garland and Mobley, in particular, are more menacing on offense than ever.
Depth has now evolved into a strong suit. That's half-bonkers when you consider Max Strus remains on the shelf. Everyone from Ty Jerome and Caris LeVert to Dean Wade and Sam Merrill is getting the job done. Cleveland's outlook is beyond bright because of it.
Dallas Mavericks
Initial Overreaction: Meet the actual second-best team in the Western Conference.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Unflappable confidence that is only, like, 3 percent performative.
Other teams will continue to want a word. Fans from the Phoenix Suns, Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors can, will and should provide the loudest rebukes.
There is just something about this Dallas Mavericks team. It is huge and deep and dispatching most defensive concerns and built around two legitimate stars, the most important of whom has yet to peak.
Sticking with the Mavs as the unchallenged second-best team in the Western Conference following Monday's loss to the Indiana Pacers is easier than it perhaps should be. Real concerns exist. But they're the type of concerns that feel as if they have to normalize.
Somebody other than Luka Dončić will eventually draw shooting fouls. P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall and even Luka himself won't all plumb individual rock bottoms from beyond the arc forever. Opponents won't drill every three they take against the starting lineup until the end of time. The bevy of size at Dallas' disposal will translate to better rebounding in time. So on and so forth.
Bookmark this overreaction in hopes of dunking on me later. The Mavs have been far from perfect. I've never felt better about them anyway.
Denver Nuggets
Initial Overreaction: The Denver Nuggets will be a play-in team if Nikola Jokić does not win the scoring title.
Status of Overreaction: Is this even an overreaction?
Nothing I have seen from the Denver Nuggets over the past week compels me to exchange this hyperbolic absolutism for an alternative.
General manager Calvin Booth can spend as much me-time as he likes in a quiet, dark, thrice-locked room watching footage from Monday's game against the Toronto Raptors that saw the kids bring it home, but one night versus a banged-up squad not actively trying to win changes nothing about Denver's dependence on Nikola Jokić.
The reigning MVP has the largest offensive-rating swing in the league, because...of course. Jamal Murray-as-the-top-option minutes are not only a disaster, but head coach Michael Malone also isn't even pretending they can be part of the regular game plan.
Select struggles will turn. Michael Porter Jr.'s shooting is chief among them. But the supporting cast isn't getting any deeper. On the contrary, it's about to get thinner. Aaron Gordon is set to miss "multiple weeks" with a right calf strain, an absence that increases defensive responsibility for everyone, which by extension raises the stakes on offense.
For his part, Jokić is scoring more than ever—almost 30 points per game. The Nuggets may need him to deliver even more, though.
Detroit Pistons
Initial Overreaction: Detroit Pistons games should end after the third quarter.
Status of Initial Overreaction: It is time to find a new slant.
Fourth quarters remain far from perfect for the Pistons, but they have won three of their past four games. We must begin anew.
New Overreaction: Jaden Ivey is the right running mate for Cade Cunningham.
Imagine saying this one year ago, or even one month ago, with a straight face. That we can even entertain the possibility is a big deal. And it speaks not only to Jaden Ivey's (massive uptick in) three-point shooting, but the skeleton of how he's playing at large.
As Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes said on a recent episode of Hardwood Knocks:
"I think a solid overreaction based on the early season is that Jaden Ivey, believe it or not, actually is the right guy to put in the backcourt next to Cade Cunningham...Now, Ivey's not a perfect player. Some of the decision-making is not where you need it to be. The defense comes and goes. He can be real spacey. But if he's going to make threes and bring the athletic drives and the transition play, and if we also just give him a little bit of grace, because it was a very difficult developmental environment under Monty Williams and just coming in as a rookie before that, I think there's a case now where Ivey can just be The Guy."
Some of the turnover stuff needs to be cleaned up. Ivey is coughing up possession on over 19 percent of his pick-and-rolls and has more turnovers than assists on his drives. But the significance of his downhill attacking (and foul-drawing) on top of what is, right now, dependable spacing cannot be overstated.
Golden State Warriors
Initial Overreaction: Jonathan Kuminga should not have bet on himself
Status of Initial Overreaction: Fluctuating wildly.
Jonathan Kuminga looks loads better since being moved to the bench. Everything from his scoring to his efficiency to his defense to his overall energy has ticked up.
This isn't enough to validate passing on $30 million or so per year. Few teams are slated for cap space next summer, and restricted free agency has largely turned into a sham. Just one player has signed an offer sheet from an outside admirer over the past two summers (Paul Reed in 2023.)
Still, the extended and more frequent flashes of Kuminga's offensive dynamism are a big deal—for both the Golden State Warriors and his wallet.
New Overreaction: If Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are Splash Brothers, then Buddy Hield is the Splash Father.
Buddy Hield is currently on pace to have the most efficient three-point-shooting season among everyone to launch seven or more treys per game.
Now, we could point out that drilling more than half of his triples is unsustainable. Counterpoint: Is it, really?
This man is uncorking threes at the speed of light and with zero hesitation. I honestly can't remember the last time I saw him having this much fun on offense. And, you know, it's kind of like Uncle Ben said: With great volume, comes great engagement and even greater flame-throwing.
Houston Rockets
Initial Overreaction: There are too many good players on this team, and yes, this is mostly about Amen Thompson.
Status of Overreaction: Nature is healing, which is to say, Thompson's minutes are up.
Amen Thompson has cleared 30 minutes in each of his past two outings even though the Houston Rockets aren't dealing with any major injuries. Whoopie.
Granted, the overarching sentiment from the initial overreaction stands. Rookie Reed Sheppard still isn't getting a ton of run, and Cam Whitmore may be getting phased out of the rotation. We nevertheless have bigger fish to fry.
New Overreaction: Will anybody on this team consistently hit a jumper ever again?
Converting three-pointers continues to be a trying task for the Rockets. They are downing under 35 percent of their above-the-break triples (19th) and just 25 percent of their corner treys (29th). Jalen Green has been their most consistent outside threat—by far–and even he's slogging through a downturn over the past few games.
Houston isn't necessarily creating a ton of high-quality looks. It's also not finding nylon on the high-quality looks it does create.
The Rockets effective field-goal percentage on wide-open jumpers (10 feet and out) is dead-last. Green, Thompson, Whitmore, Dillon Brooks, Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr. and Fred VanVleet are all shooting under 34 percent on uncontested threes.
This is so staggeringly bad that it's almost encouraging. Surely Houston's perimeter woes aren't going to last. Right?
Right??
Indiana Pacers
Initial Overreaction: We are seeing the 2021 Atlanta Hawks reincarnated.
Status of Initial Overreaction: The vibes aren't much better, but let's allow the evidence to mount one way or another before invoking the "A" word.
This overreaction felt a tad over the top even by over-the-top standards. The Indiana Pacers have yet to fully explode on offense, and a loss to the shorthanded New Orleans Pelicans on Nov. 1 is grounds for concern. But they picked up a victory over the Dallas Mavericks Monday night despite missing Aaron Nesmith.
And at any rate, we have a more pressing question to ask.
New Overreaction: Is it time to have an uncomfortable conversation about Tyrese Haliburton?
Having this discussion following Haliburton's 25-point, 12-assist performance on Monday night isn't nearly as awkward. But the encompassing concern remains.
It took him seven games to hit at least half of his shots from the floor, his three-point clip is in the gutter (sub-25 percent), and he's currently churning out a noticeable downtick in both field-goal attempts and assists per 100 possessions. His performance verges on alarming, because it persists seemingly without cause.
As Basketball, She Wrote's Caitlin Cooper explained:
"The trouble now is that the center position is on shaky ground and the rest only matters in so much that Tyrese Haliburton can shake whatever it is that's leading him to not quite look like himself, either passing out of floaters and layups or not having much lift on the floaters and layups he takes while still battling some inconsistency with his shot. If the wing problem is still going to be the wing problem, at a time when they also don't project to have much "center" of gravity, it's not going to be enough for him to take one shot in the fourth quarter, especially if the shots in the paint are there for the taking both for him and against him at the other end of the floor. In that regard, if he and the team are going to steady themselves through the turbulence, he has to be more eager, willing, and, most importantly, able to fly."
Is Hali dealing with a lingering injury? Struggling to fit inside the larger context of an offense that has additional weapons to spare? Will the go-getter mindset and play return? Is this the sign of a new, unsettling, wildly uneven normal?
The Pacers can only hope these first couple of weeks are a blip rather than bread crumbs leading the way to an unnerving destination.
Los Angeles Clippers
Initial Overreaction: Ivica Zubac is going to win Most Improved Player.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Stepping out on this limb is a shakier proposition.
Some of Ivica Zubac's opening numbers have trickled back to solid ground. His 53.8 percent conversion rate on twos would be his lowest since 2017-18.
That dip in efficiency largely comes with the territory. The Los Angeles Clippers are giving him more responsibility on offense. His frontcourt touches have gone from 27.8 per 36 minutes last year to 43.6 this season, and more of his attempts inside the arc are coming away from the basket than ever before.
L.A. has even leaned on him for more center-floor playmaking to boot. And it looks good on him. The Clippers aren't setting the world on fire, and he's not wired to be a true hub, but the offense is approaching league average during the stretches he plays without James Harden.
Tack on his continued elite rim protection and increasingly malleable defensive mobility overall, and Zubac is doing enough to warrant mentions in the Most Improved Player discussion.
Los Angeles Lakers
Initial Overreaction: JJ Redick is going to win Coach of the Year
Status of Initial Overreaction: Er...
The Los Angeles Lakers just lost to the Detroit Pistons. And Kenny Atkinson exists. So it seems yours truly went a little too far afield last week.
Fear not, though. I have an equally incendiary-yet-more-sustainable backup.
New Overreaction: Anthony Davis is going to finish inside the top three of MVP voting.
Anthony Davis has opened the season averaging a league-leading 32.6 points per game while downing over 60 percent of his twos and playing exhaustive defense that can be tricky to detect if you're only looking at the Lakers' aggregate performance.
Let's begin on the less glamorous end. The NBA does not have a more complete defender in the NBA than Davis. And if I'm wrong, it's a nod toward Bam Adebayo and nobody else.
Davis' floor coverage remains unfathomable. Los Angeles' defensive rating is worse with him on the floor, but given the lineups he's tasked with propping up, the discrepancy should be even larger. (The starting five is a net-plus on the defensive end largely because of him.)
Offensive accolades are driving recalibrations of Davis' superstardom more than anything. And it's not because he's taking or making an outlier number of jumpers.
The Lakers under Redick are doing a much better job of getting him the ball. Period. But they're also striving to put him in more advantageous positions. His post-ups have not soared; his drives have. And getting him downhill has helped float a ridiculous number of trips to the foul line. He's averaging more free-throw attempts per game than anyone else in the league.
This isn't so much a new version of Davis as much as a fully unleashed version of him—the kind that's bound to garner top-of-the-ballot MVP consideration so long as the Lakers don't implode.
Memphis Grizzlies
Initial Overreaction: Head coach Taylor Jenkins' rotation is either tell-tale, unnecessary, confusing as hell or a combination of all three.
Status of Initial Overreaction: I stand by it, but we're moving on anyway.
Injuries, foul trouble, individual slides and a handful of not-so-close games have complicated Taylor Jenkins. That makes it tough to truly pin down.
Is it bizarre that no one on the team is averaging even 29 minutes per game? Especially when GG Jackson II, Vince Williams Jr. and Luke Kennard have yet to play this season? Most definitely. But let's give the Memphis Grizzlies another minute or 20 to get healthier and deeper into the season before we continue piling on the playing-time anarchy.
New Overreaction: Scotty Pippen Jr. is going to win Sixth Man of the Year.
Scotty Pippen Jr. continues to be a revelation for the Grizz, averaging 11.4 points, 6.8 assists and 1.1 steals per game off the pine. The Sixth Man of the Year award tends to favor microwave scorers, but if he keeps spitting out double-digit totals and burying 39-plus percent of his threes, he'll have a convincing all-around-impact case.
The playmaking stands out more than anything. The 23-year-old has set up more above-the-break triples than anyone else on the team, per PBP Stats, and only six players in the entire league have thrown more dimes off drives.
Yes, his turnovers can get wonky when he has to slow things down. But packing this type of playmaking bunch off the bench is beyond bonkers. Among everyone who has racked up as much total court time, James Harden, Nikola Jokić, Chris Paul and Trae Young are the only players tossing more assists per 36 minutes.
Miami Heat
Initial Reaction: Tyler Herro is embracing a permanent evolution on the offensive end.
Status of Initial Reaction: Firmly intact.
Tyler Herro's shot profile remains rosier than ever. He has changed out mid-rangers for (slightly) more looks at the rim and (many) more attempts from deep.
This iteration of Herro is more effective and plug-and-play than ever. But his identity shift comes amid an existential crisis for the Miami Heat writ large and must now take a backseat to the all-consuming confusion.
New Overreaction: This team has no identity.
Red flags abound for the Heat. They are .500 with an offense and defense that both rank below league average and long-term optimism is getting harder to maintain—to feign.
Chaotic underachieving is this squad's prevailing theme. The Heat are inexplicably one of the league's three worst third-quarter teams. (This was true before the post-halftime smackdown they suffered against Sacramento on Monday.) They are 29th in efficiency at the charity stripe. They are 24th in field-goal percentage at the rim and 27th in accuracy from mid-range.
Bam Adebayo is notching career-worst efficiency from inside the arc (and at the foul line). The offense is too often slow and sloggy. The defense too often lacks any sort of urgency, particularly on the glass.
Duncan Robinson is once again ice-cold. Ditto for Nikola Jović. Jimmy Butler almost exclusively holds off on flipping #TheSwitch until fourth quarters. Jaime Jaquez Jr. was making little progress before getting sidelined with an illness. Pelle Larsson has already seen an uncomfortable amount of court time—and I say this as a Pelle Larsson optimist. The starting lineup is getting blasted by over 18 points per 100 possessions.
Write this off—all of it—as early-season hairiness if you truly believe it, but something more seems afoot in Miami. And it makes the Heat a team to watch extra closely in the coming days, weeks and months.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Initial Overreaction: They won the Karl-Anthony Towns-for-Julius Randle trade even though Donte DiVincenzo isn't (consistently) nailing threes yet.
Status of Initial Overreaction: It's complicated.
Donte DiVincenzo is beginning to find his stroke from deep and Julius Randle continues to be hyper-efficient. That bodes well for the Minnesota Timberwolves' chances of winning the blockbuster.
Weird starting-lineup returns invariably render this a TBD situation, though. If you're like me, your impressions of the Randle, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels fivesome have seesawed by the game—and sometimes by the possession.
Amid that vacillation, about-facing into another overreaction seems appropriate.
New Overreaction: The Timberwolves have an Anthony Edwards problem that isn't actually an Anthony Edwards problem.
Many have lauded Edwards for substantially boosting his three-point volume. And he most definitely deserves a ton of credit. His overall mid-range frequency is down, and he's clearing a 45 percent conversion rate from distance.
Still, this additional long-range volume has also come at the expense of his rim attempts. That is somewhat fine in the grand scheme. Launching more threes has coincided with a lighter self-creation load. Half of Edwards' buckets are going unassisted, down from 60.9 percent last season.
Minnesota is nevertheless too reliant on his perimeter volume. At the bare minimum, this rise has eclipsed too much of his ability to devastate going downhill. Such is life, to some extent, when playing with Gobert and Randle. Under 10.50 percent of Edwards' attempts come at the rim when he's alongside both bigs, according to PBP Stats. That share explodes to 19.44 percent when just one of them is on the court.
Going from Towns to Randle is a downgrade in off-ball gravity, and he likes to get going downhill himself. But the bigger culprit is slumping three-point percentages from Conley and, most notably, McDaniels.
Wing shooting was a problem for the Wolves' overall rotation last year. It remains an issue inside the starting lineup now; a shortcoming that is, apparently, almost entirely on Edwards to offset.
Milwaukee Bucks
Initial Overreaction: The sky is falling.
Status of Initial Overreaction: It is actually free-falling.
When the Milwaukee Bucks next tip off, they will have gone more than two weeks without a victory. Caveats about it still being early and all, they seem genuinely screwed.
Giannis Antetokounmpo—who missed Monday's loss to Cleveland with an adductor injury—has been largely spectacular. And Damian Lillard has gone kaboom in each of the Bucks' past two games. Oh, and Milwaukee ended up putting forth a valiant effort without Giannis against what is, right now, the league's best team.
Silver linings and moral victories are not enough to stave off full-blown panic. Nor is the eventual return of Khris Middleton—which, for the record, does not sound imminent.
This defense looks absolutely cooked. Ball containment is hard to come by, and the Bucks are a special brand of incompetent in transition. They do not crash the offensive glass (30th) yet continue to get blasted after missed shots on the break.
Milwaukee's own transition offense continues to regress, in both frequency and efficiency. Playable athleticism is virtually nonexistent after Giannis, and the roster in general remains both old and shallow. Head coach Doc Rivers may have more power over basketball decisions to boot, according to CBS Sports' Bill Reiter. If that's not Defcon 1 on the panic meter, I shudder to think what qualifies.
Fans of other teams are probably trade-machining it up right now. Sorry to break it to the mass of vultures, but don't expect the Bucks to move Giannis midseason. But don't expect the speculation to stop, either.
New Orleans Pelicans
Initial Overreaction: This offense is cooked.
Status of Initial Overreaction: It stands, but more nuance is required.
The New Orleans Pelicans are 25th in points scored per possession with a matching three-point-attempt rate. Pretty much everything from our last check-in remains true, right down to them allowing defenses too much leeway to get set when they don't have the personnel to break them down. They are 25th in average possession time, according to Inpredictable, and not making one ounce of effort to push the pace when opponents make shots.
Jordan Hawkins deserves a tip of the cap for his breakout. And Brandon Ingram is finally firing away from three with acceptable volume.
None of which prompts me to back off my thoughts on the offense, but more urgent developments demand an overreaction.
New Overreaction: The Pelicans are 100 percent cursed.
Do not bother asking whether New Orleans will be healthy. We know the answer. And it's not "yes."
Missing Trey Murphy (right hamstring) to start the season and then losing Dejounte Murray (left hand) until December or later on opening night apparently wasn't enough. They are now joined by CJ McCollum (right adductor) and Herb Jones (right shoulder).
But wait, that's not enough, either.
Zion Williamson (right hamstring/quad) has missed the past couple of games.
And that still isn't enough.
Hawkins (lower back tightness) missed Monday's loss to the Portland Trail Blazers and remains day-to-day.
Consider this my official plea to the person who's messing around with Pelicans-player voodoo dolls to please stop already.
New York Knicks
Initial Overreaction: The Karl-Anthony Towns trade was a mistake.
Status of Initial Overreaction: We need to adjust.
Karl-Anthony Towns has turned in a pair of monster performances since this clear overreaction. His most recent outing, on Monday against the Rockets, was more of a microcosm of the KAT experience: Moments of "He gets it" contrasted with early foul trouble and offensive detachment and defensive issues and general so-so-ness.
The New York Knicks themselves are not blameless in the unevenness they're receiving from Towns. As Knicks Film School's Jonathan Macri recently explained, everyone must figure out how to properly involve him when teams switch or stash smaller players on him.
That brings us to the new take. And remember, this is meant to be an overreaction.
New Overreaction: There is a not-insignificant chance we look back on the Knicks' summer of 2024 as one of the worst offseasons of all time.
This is a safe space...right? Guess we're about to find out either way.
New York clearly deserves more time before any of us, myself included, actually commit to this stance. But none of us should understate the downside, particularly after everything we have seen so far.
As of right now, the Knicks look to have unloaded (almost) every trade chip in their arsenal while failing to make themselves any less dependent on Jalen Brunson. Their depth is lacking, in part because of injuries. But whether a healthy Precious Achiuwa and Mitchell Robinson inject stability into the defense, without compromising the offense, is debatable.
Neither of them, though, imbue the rotation with additional shot creation. Brunson's usage rate is up from last season and an even larger share of his buckets (75 percent) are going unassisted compared to 2023-24 (67.6 percent). The Knicks were always going to travel as far as their floor general could take them. Generally speaking, though, you don't see teams go all-in without also increasing their best player's margin for error.
Once more, with feeling: New York deserves time to figure this out. Its starting five is a net plus even when factoring in the opening-night shellacking at the hands of Boston.
The Knicks have also won the minutes KAT and Mikal Bridges have logged without Brunson, a huge development if it holds. But the overall depth and secondary shot creation for this group is shaky—far less of a given than it should be relative to everything and everyone New York gave up to get here.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Initial Overreaction: This is the best defense of all time.
Status of Initial Overreaction: People don't realize how hard it is being this right.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are no longer tied for the lowest defensive rating in NBA history. They are now second. So, clearly, they're cooked.
In all seriousness, though, adjusted defensive rating is a better measure of effectiveness. This approach evaluates a team's performance across history relative to the league average.
Calculating it is pretty straightforward. You just divide the league-average defensive rating from each year by every team's individual defensive rating, then multiply the result by a 100. In this case, then, the higher adjusted defensive rating is better.
Entering this season, the 1963-64 Boston Celtics owned the best adjusted defensive rating in league history, at 112.89. Right now, the 2024-25 league average defensive rating checks in at 113. That gives the Thunder, who have an overall defensive rating of 93.4, an adjusted defensive rating of 120.99.
Phrased another way: At this moment, Oklahoma City is on pace to have, statistically, the stingiest defense in NBA history. You can dismiss this as early-season noise. Opponents are shooting untenably low percentages at the rim and from deep.
But, well, the Thunder essentially have zero backup bigs right now. Isaiah Hartenstein, one of the most valuable defensive centers around, has yet to even play. Oklahoma City is eventually going to be guarding with even more grit and IQ and actual size on top of its current meld of grit and high-IQ and frantic, disruptive energy. That is terrifying...if you're an opposing offense.
Orlando Magic
Initial Overreaction: A pretty ridiculous drought is about to end.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Bleckkkkkkkkk.
Please take a moment and bid farewell to the Orlando Magic's hopes of sustaining a league-average-or-better offense for the first time since 2011-12. Their chances of breaking the streak went down with Paolo Banchero.
The 21-year-old, who looked set to party crash the back end of MVP ballots, is out indefinitely with an oblique injury. Orlando has lost every game since the diagnosis while posting the league's worst offensive rating.
Nobody should figure on this changing. Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner and Anthony Black are all better. Not one of them, though, is equipped to jump-start the offense without a patented first-option star by their side.
Which brings us to the new overreaction.
New Overreaction: It's time for Orlando to make a trade.
Initiation deficits have plagued the Magic for, like, eternity. And now the situation for this era is more dire than ever.
Name your realistic trade target. I don't care who. Orlando should probably be in on them.
It does not even need to be an all-caps FLOOR GENERAL. That is preferable, but capable off-the-bounce and off-the-catch shot-making as well as consistent rim pressure and foul-drawing in traffic go a long way towards papering over any initiation issues.
This would be an irrational overreaction if Banchero had an imminent timetable for return. He doesn't. And while the Magic do not face the most urgent of timelines, they aren't at the phase of their development where it makes sense to willingly accept the gap year to which his injury may consign them.
Philadelphia 76ers
Initial Overreaction: Caleb Martin and Andre Drummond are going to start more games than Joel Embiid and Paul George.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Meh.
Paul George made his season debut for the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday.
But that still only permits me to downgrade this overreaction to:
New Overreaction: Andre Drummond is going to start more games than Joel Embiid.
Embiid has yet to make his season debut while tending to a left knee injury. And he is now suspended for three games following a locker room altercation with Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes.
philip lewis @Phil_Lewis_"You can say I suck, you can say whatever you want about me as a player. Don't ever put my dead brother's name in your mouth," <a href="https://twitter.com/KyleNeubeck?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@KyleNeubeck</a> describes Joel Embiid altercation with journalist <a href="https://t.co/CIorWx3NV7">https://t.co/CIorWx3NV7</a> <a href="https://t.co/dIsDDaULZz">pic.twitter.com/dIsDDaULZz</a>
This entire situation sucks. It is objectively gross for Hayes to invoke Embiid's son and his deceased brother in order to make a point about the big man's availability. The entire idea that Embiid is somehow responsible for his injuries—let alone faking them—is dumbassery.
It likewise was not a good look for Embiid to confront Hayes in that manner. The Sixers need him too much for him to add three absences on top of the games he will miss due to injury and load maintenance.
Which raises the question: Is this really an overreaction? We're early enough into the season that it counts. We all (likely) expected for him to play in fewer than the 65 games required to qualify for year-end awards. But was, and is, the expectation for him to play in so few games that Drummond winds up logging more time as the starting 5? Absolutely not.
Here's hoping this is an overreaction that doesn't pan out.
Phoenix Suns
Initial Overreaction: Kevin Durant is playing too many minutes.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Kevin Durant is still playing too many minutes.
Kevin Durant is second in minutes per game. "Real hoopers know" me to death all you want. KD loves basketball. He wants to play. Awesome. Trotting him out this much, in his age-36 season, seems needlessly risky.
Leaving this overreaction in place still runs counter to the spirit of the exercise. The Phoenix Suns are winning basketball games. Threatening to run KD into the ground is working and, if you saw Monday night's close against Philadelphia, potentially necessary rather than needlessly risky.
New Overreaction: Ryan Dunn is finishing third or better in Rookie of the Year voting.
This year's rookie class is nondescript enough so far to paint this a proper reaction. But top three is a tall order, particularly when your spot in the rotation will be subject to more turbulence than many other newbies.
Ryan Dunn is outstripping expectations and preconceived notions decisively enough to throw caution to the wind. Hell, if you could guarantee his minutes creep closer to 25 per game rather than sub-20 per game, I might bust out a "wins Rookie of the Year" overreaction.
His defense is as advertised, and the Suns have not shied away from throwing him on the best of the best. The preseason three-point shooting might also be for real. His outside clip has skirted below 36 percent, but that's still serviceable, and he's firing away enough that defenses may eventually attach bodies to him or close out more aggressively (or at all) on him. If and when they do, he could become a mainstay in Phoenix's no-big arrangements.
Regularly contributing to a contender as a rookie always commands a level of attention. At this point, it would be fairly surprising if Dunn doesn't bag first-team All-Rookie honors and the splash of Rookie of the Year consideration that can come with it.
Portland Trail Blazers
Initial Overreaction: Trade Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant already. Good lord.
Status of Initial Overreaction: My point stands, but it's giving way to a more intriguing development.
Do I still loathe the idea of how Deni Avdija is being used on offense? Yes. Am I "Team Keep Bringing Scoot Henderson Off The Bench?" Not even a little bit.
Yet, do I also hate bringing everything back to trades for fanbases that hear enough about them from those like myself? Absolutely. And so...
New Overreaction: TO EVERYONE WHO BELIEVED IN THE DEFENSE: IT'S TIME FOR A VICTORY LAP.
People laughed (i.e. trolled me on social media) when I predicted the Blazers would maintain an above-average defense so long as the crux of the roster remained intact.
Look at me now.
Well, actually, look at the Blazers. They are 12th in points allowed per possession.
Playing the hobbled version of the New Orleans Pelicans does wonders. But Portland is 14th in points allowed per possession when you filter out that game. And it is not necessarily riding the coattails of untenable luck.
Opponents will probably hit more of their threes moving forward, but they're not exactly arctic cold from beyond the arc. Rival teams are knocking down over 40 percent of the wide-open threes that the Blazers concede.
Besides, Portland has its own set of progressions to make. It definitely has the size to rebound better, foul less and put up more resistance at the rim. Of course, this presumes opponents reach the rim ever again. They might not. The Blazers are fifth in the share of looks they allow at the basket, which is ridiculous by itself but doubly so when you consider how much time opponents are spending in transition.
Size and length at pretty much every position go a long way. Who knew? And you absolutely, positively have to give it up for Avdija and Grant, who lead the team in point-blank contests and are streamlining things for Deandre Ayton. And while you're at it, give it up for Toumani Camara simply because he exists.
Will this all hold, even if the front office doesn't go buck wild in advance of the trade deadline? Debatable. Portland can shift into full-on developmental mode without a roster shakeup. In the meantime, this defense seems built to exceed expectations.
Sacramento Kings
Initial Overreaction: Mike Brown has decided Keon Ellis isn't a real person and figments of imagination cannot play too many minutes in meaningful basketball games.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Breathe easy, Keon Ellis stans.
Keon Ellis has received more overall minutes and not a single "DNP: Coach's Inexplicable Decision" since we played the "WTF, Mike?" card. Does that make all of us, as a family, responsible for the uptick in floor time the 24-year-old is getting? Probably not. But also: Maybe.
Don't go banging pots and pans outside on your block at 2 a.m. local time in spirited victory just yet, though...
New Overreaction: Mike Brown pretty much hates all bench players.
Four of Sacramento's five starters are basically averaging 37 or more minutes per game: DeMar DeRozan, De'Aaron Fox, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis. The latter currently receives the fewest ticks a night of the quartet, which is pretty wild when you consider center is the position at which the Kings feel thinnest outside the opening five.
Even if Ellis continues to get more playing time, Brown is tracking toward an overreliance on the top of the roster. He clearly doesn't trust anyone beyond DeRozan, Fox, Murray, Sabonis, Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk.
Is that on him? Team president Monte McNair?
And more importantly, regardless of who's at fault, is the current minutes distribution sustainable without running the Kings' most indispensable players into the ground?
San Antonio Spurs
Initial Overreaction: The turnover issues are here to stay.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Continue to overreaction, folks, because it's the proper reaction.
Pivoting to Victor Wembanyama's efficiency and shot selection at the offensive end is fair game. Yours truly won't do it, at least not until we sniff the quarter pole of the season.
Turnovers continue to dog the Spurs. They are finally surrendering possession less with Chris Paul on the floor, but improving off a low baseline does not amount to quality ball control.
Hovering inside the bottom five of turnover rate feels inevitable. San Antonio is still fairly reliant on some inexperienced and imperfect ball-handlers, including Wemby himself. And there is only so much a 39-year-old CP3 can change.
Then again, the Spurs aren't yet at full strength, which is why this continues to qualify as an overreaction.
Tre Jones has not played since suffering a right ankle sprain in the season opener. He is uber-important to the team's offensive game management.
Devin Vassell, meanwhile, has yet to make his 2024-25 debut as he recovers from right foot surgery. I'm skeptical he will do too much to affect change, but the 24-year-old is the team's most valuable floor-spacer. His return will open up more room for everyone, and he's a lower-turnover guy himself.
Toronto Raptors
Initial Overreaction: RJ Barrett is the second-most important player to the Toronto Raptors' future.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Feeling good, feeling grand, feeling great.
Barrett continues to put up gaga numbers and efficiency since making his season debut after missing Toronto's first three games with a right shoulder issue.
Everything that popped last year, as well as to start 2024-25, keeps standing out: relentless driving, chaos creation in the paint, perpetual pressure in transition and better finishing around the rim (compared to his time in New York.)
And yet, it turns out we may need an overreaction adjustment anyway...
New Overreaction: Gradey Dick is actually the second-most important player to the Raptors' future.
Raise your hand if you saw Gradey Dick opening the year putting up 20-plus points per game.
For everyone with their hand up, even if you caked in Toronto's top of the rotation getting hampered by injuries, congratulations on your admission that you're a liar.
Movement and shooting continue to represent the meat and potatoes of Gradey's mystique. But he wasn't even downing threes at a great clip out of the gate. His shot versatility and difficulty instead leap off the page and smack you right in the noggin.
"Seventy-one percent of Gradey's shots have been heavily contested, which ranks 15th among the 26 players who have attempted at least 100 shots," Basketball, She Wrote's Caitlin Cooper wrote. "[He] leads the entire league in screens as the off-ball cutter, with 133. Among the 23 players who have seen at least 50 closeouts, Gradey ranks third in points per chance (1.188)."
Barrett may carry larger importance when you factor in defensive potential. But while Gradey can get hunted, he has decent size at his position—and knows how to use it, especially away from the ball.
Perhaps it's too soon to have this conversation. At the same time, we may also be headed for some epic debates over Barrett, Gradey and Immanuel Quickley and which of them is most critical to Toronto's long-term future.
Utah Jazz
Initial Overreaction: The best player of the next good Utah Jazz team is not on this year's Utah Jazz team.
Status of Initial Overreaction: Uncomfortably dead-on.
On the one hand, the NBA's only winless team is finally accomplishing what it set out to do when it traded away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert three offseasons ago: Bottom the hell out. On the other hand, the Jazz have little tangible cornerstone equity to show for the intervening two regular seasons.
Lauri Markkanen's emergence is dope. And it put Utah in a thorny situation none of us saw coming. But even the 27-year-old at his peak may not be second-best-player-on-a-contender material. To be sure, he could be, but it's far from certain.
More to the point, the Jazz don't look like they have their future face of the team. Even more to the point, it doesn't even look like they have an outside shot of housing that player.
Keyonte George looms largest here. The aesthetics of his game are appealing. Eventually, though, the efficiency must come somewhat close to aligning with the eye test.
It's not. Among the 139 players who have matched George's current court time and usage rate through their first two seasons, his effective field-goal percentage fails to crack the top 100.
Utah doesn't have any viable options beyond its sophomore. Holding out hope for Cody Williams is fine. (Related: I picked him to finish top-three in Rookie of the Year voting.) But he has yet to flash the style of someone who believes he's good enough to be a featured weapon.
Washington Wizards
Initial Overreaction: The Washington Wizards are going to Charlotte Bobcat (a.k.a. finish dead-last in offense and defense)
Status of Initial Overreaction: Oops.
One half of this knee-jerk impression is holding serve. The Wizards continue to have a bottom-of-the-barrel defense. But the offense has rocketed all the way outside the bottom five. I should have known better than to underestimate the impact of Bilal Coulibaly.
Speaking of which...
New Overreaction: Bilal Coulibaly is a future All-Star.
Let's set the over/under of Coulibaly All-Star appearances at 0.5. And then let's go ahead and all agree to take the "over."
If you have not been paying attention, the 20-year-old looks great. He has added more levels and layers to his offense, most noticeably ratcheting up his patience and poise when operating on the ball. And if he has not capably defended the best player on one of the other 29 teams, it is simply because Washington has yet to play them.
Coulibaly's overall numbers on the season back up every bit of this optimism. In the event you're in the market for an encapsulation of all he brings to the table, go back and watch his Oct. 30 detonation versus the Atlanta Hawks.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering games on Wednesday, Nov. 6. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.